Looking at Estonia's reduction in greenhouse gas emissions as a whole, the country has already met the EU-wide goal of cutting emissions by 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.

Although Estonia's overall indicator is in order, the problem lies in the fact that the European Union has also set separate, mandatory targets for specific sectors through 2030, and the European Commission keeps a close watch on their implementation. By now, it is clear that several sectors will not be able to meet the prescribed carbon reduction targets.

The most well-known of these is the forestry, land-use change, and land-use sector (LULUCF), whose targets have proven unmanageable for Estonia. Because of failure to meet these obligations, the country is likely facing a hefty fine that could exceed €100 million.

Seeing that individual sectors are clearly struggling, the Ministry of Climate, together with the government, has taken a new direction: for the decade beginning in 2030, countries must have the right to decide for themselves in which sectors emissions should be reduced more and where more time is needed.

Andres Metsoja (Isamaa), deputy chair of the Riigikogu's Environment Committee, noted that the government and the ministry have finally reached the conclusion that the sectors stated from the very beginning: the LULUCF targets are not achievable.

"At the time, this was disputed and it was said that the plan was good and had to be adhered to. Now, through interim reviews, we have reached the point where it is clear that it cannot be met. But I certainly do not believe that this unworkable plan should now be spread across our entire economic landscape. Rather, the direction should be very clearly toward standing up for our national resources. For example, the carbon quota for shale oil should move together with the oil to the country where it is used, instead of remaining in our accounting," Metsoja said.

Laura Remmelgas, head of the Climate Department at the Ministry of Climate, explained that Estonia's goal is to achieve greater flexibility in the coming decade.

"Estonia's interest is that, when meeting the 2040 target, the country would have a single overall assessment and decision-making freedom within that," Remmelgas told ERR.

According to Remmelgas, climate policy in Europe is becoming more mature: whereas earlier only numbers were agreed upon, there is now a thorough discussion about how these targets can actually be achieved.

Remmelgas also noted that Estonia no longer supports strict annual trajectories or five-year interim targets.

"There are measures whose impact may only become visible over a long period of time. There can also be years when emissions are higher — whether due to an energy crisis or changes in nature, such as major forest fires in southern countries. Maintaining such a very strict annual limit is not reasonable. What matters is how we meet the final target," Remmelgas said.

Lahe: The world has changed

Hanah Lahe (Reform Party), a member of the Riigikogu's Environment Committee, emphasized that the desire for greater flexibility does not mean abandoning climate goals. According to Lahe, the world has changed drastically since 2019, when the European Green Deal was launched.

"A security threat has been added. When the Green Deal was born, the situation in Europe was completely different," Lahe noted. She explained that Estonia is not alone in this demand — neighbors Finland and Sweden are also seeking similar flexibility, as emissions reductions in certain sectors have not progressed at the hoped-for pace.

"Climate policy cannot be an end in itself; it has to be connected to everything else in member states, including economic competitiveness," Lahe said.

Maran: Fines for missing interim targets must remain

Riigikogu member Tiit Maran (Social Democrats) warned that blurring targets could open the door to inaction. "If sectors lack concrete targets, areas with stronger leverage — such as the forestry and peat industries — can negotiate more favorable conditions for themselves, pushing the obligations onto others," Maran argued.

Maran also noted that without binding targets and real sanctions, climate policy essentially becomes voluntary and subject to political headwinds, where every new government can reshape the goals as it sees fit.

"We need to understand the real meaning of climate change for society. This topic is extraordinarily complex, and it is even worse when populist, confusing slogans are added to the mix," Maran stressed.

Maran was particularly critical of abolishing interim targets and fines.

"Why are we afraid of these fines? Do we suspect that we will not meet the requirements? The answer from officials was vague. Personally, I can find no other interpretation than that if there are no fines for failing to meet targets, it becomes completely voluntary. Essentially, there is then neither a carrot nor a stick," Maran concluded.

Lahe did not agree with the criticism that giving up sanctions would make the picture too unclear. "We carry out monitoring every year and know exactly where the problems are. I would not label Estonia's position as 'letting things slide' — that would be wrong. We simply have to take into account the different crises that have piled on top of one another," Lahe added.

Metsoja: The accounting methodology needs correction

Metsoja also believes that the current methodology is unfair, as Estonia bears responsibility for emissions linked to products that are consumed elsewhere.

"A pellet goes to the Netherlands, but the quota stays with us. The same applies to peat — the carbon emissions remain in our accounting. The basis of the accounting needs to be fixed and linked to the economy: carbon should be tied to where the goods go," Metsoja emphasized.

Maran urged trusting independent institutions capable of assessing the field objectively. According to Maran, difficult decisions are currently being pushed into the future. "This means that future decision-makers will have to deal with these issues, but by then it will already be much more complicated."

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